Global Independent Analytics
Enric Ravello Barber
Enric Ravello Barber

Location: Spain

Specialization: History, Catalunya, Spain, Geopolitics, Nationalism in Europe, Islamization, Immigration

SPAIN TO REPEAT THE POLITICAL ELECTIONS

About current political situations in Spain

Five days after the last Spanish elections were held, I published an article in GIAnalytics entitled "Spain becomes ungovernable"[1] in which I spoke of the difficulty of forming a government with the results of the polls.

Impossibility of a center-left government

During these four months, it has been Pedro Sanchez, leader of the PSOE (Socialist) who has tried to seek a coalition government as an alternative to the conservative government of the Popular Party (conservative), which has also been the winner of the last elections but with an insufficient majority.

The failure of Pedro Sanchez has been twofold. First the foreseeable failure to have the support of Catalan nationalist parties, for which Sanchez had nothing to offer in exchange for their support.

Second, Sanchez´s failure in trying to form a government that should be supported both by the center-liberal party Citizens (C's) and the leftist party PODEMOS.  PSOE needed the support of both, but from the outset, it was clear that it would not be possible to obtain support from both at once. Ideological differences between C's and PODEMOS are insurmountable, and neither party - both parties are of recent creation - could disappoint in this way their constituents, whose loyalty is still shaky. A PSOE-C's government or a PSOE-PODEMOS government could have been possible, but in both cases, the number of deputies was insufficient. A government PSOE-C's-PODEMOS was so impossible that the PSOE should have known this from the beginning. The failure of the negotiations last Friday, May 8, stripped the PSOE of a political initiative.

Socialist rejection of a grand coalition

Mariano Rajoy and the conservative PP, who had a passive role during these four months, took on Monday an initiative to repeat what has always been his proposal to form a government: a grand coalition between the PP, the PSOE, and C's. To make stronger his proposal, Rajoy offered the Socialist leader, Sanchez, the vice-presidency of the new government[2].

The answer of Cs and PSOE came a few days later: rejection of the proposal to form the coalition[3].

PSOE does not want to ally themselves with the PP for fear of losing votes for PODEMOS. C's does not want to ally with PP because of the numerous instances of corruption of the conservatives, compounded now by the presence of a minister of PP in the so-called "Panama Papers" [4].

With this situation, the King Felipe VI has initiated a new round of contacts to see if any candidate can form a government [5]. Something that looks like the last step before new elections is called for if no one can form a government in the next two weeks.

 


[1] https://gianalytics.org/257-spanish-elections-spain-becomes-ungovernable

[2]http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/04/11/570aa605e2704e60278b45e9.html

[3]http://www.atlantico.net/articulo/espanha/psoe-y-c-s-rechazan-gran-acuerdo-propuesto-rajoy/20160410041538524584.html

[4] http://www.eldiario.es/economia/ministro-Soria-papeles-Panama_0_504299816.html

[5]http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/04/12/570cb81d268e3e8c688b4576.html

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