Global Independent Analytics

Brexit would cost UK families £4,300 each a year

The long-awaited Treasury document will say that a vote to leave the EU would shrink Britain's GDP by six per cent by 2030

Charlie Cooper reporting for the Independent: Perhaps the biggest downside of the Brexit has been forecasted by Treasury officials. It is ironic that something designed to free UK from giving away too much money would actually permanently damage the country’s economy and send it down the long road of recession.

The gloomy forecast, confirmed by Chancellor George Osborne’s intervention in the EU referendum debate, says that leaving the EU would cost UK households £4,300 a year making them “permanently poorer.”

“The conclusion is clear: for Britain’s economy and for families, leaving the EU would be the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound,” said the Chancellor in the interview with The Times.

The estimate is based on an analysis of how a ‘Canada-style’ trade deal with the EU, which has been advocated by Boris Johnson, would affect the UK’s finances. 

Mr Osborne also criticized the Leave camp in the article, accusing them of “crying wolf” with their claim that the case for staying in the EU is founded on a so-called “Project Fear”.

“Every time you cry wolf about Project Fear, you only expose how weak and friendless your case is,” he writes.

An insider with the knowledge of the Treasury document, said: "Every alternative to EU membership has significant economic costs. 

"The document is a serious, sober analysis and it will show that the hit to the economy of a vote to Leave would not just be temporary, but permanent, because of lower trade and investment.”

"That means that far from there being more to spend on schools, hospitals and defense, there will be less - billions of pounds a year less. Britain would be worse off for decades to come.”

By Stefan Paraber for GIA

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