Global Independent Analytics
Enric Ravello Barber
Enric Ravello Barber

Location: Spain

Specialization: History, Catalunya, Spain, Geopolitics, Nationalism in Europe, Islamization, Immigration

What´s going on in Catalonia?

Too many doubts in the way to independence

During the first session of the Catalan parliament after the elections on 27th September - reported in the previous article[i], two issues were discussed: The adoption of a declaration on rupture with Spain and the investiture of Artur Mas as president of Catalonia.

Breaking with Spain: a dialectic or reality?

In the parliamentary session, 72 deputies of the pro-independence majority: 62 of Junts pel Sí [ii] and 10 of CUP[iii] -  agreed to adopt a text proclaiming the beginning of the process of independence for Catalonia and an official declaration stating that the Catalan Parliament would not obey Spanish Constitutional Court[iv] rulings that come into contradiction with the decisions of the Catalan Parliament.

This declaration had a big impact on the media worldwide[v]. However, the statement was not given enough international importance and its value was more symbolic than political. The statement must be understood in the context of negotiations between Junts pel Sí (JxS) and CUP on the presidential inauguration.

In fact, the statement made is paralleled to the declaration of sovereignty passed by the Catalan Parliament in 2013 that had no real effects at all[vi].

The most problematic point of the statement is the announcement that the Catalan Parliament will not obey the Constitutional Court. As I said in the interview I did with the Russian Radio Sputnik[vii], my opinion was that the 62 deputies of JxS will not be able to maintain this attitude in the moment of truth. A few days later, their own statements[viii]  confirmed my point of view.

What about the new Catalan President?

JxS supported the declaration of rupture with Spain and disobeying the Constitutional Court, but its support must be understood in the context of the framework of negotiations on the new Catalan president.

JxS presented an electoral candidacy in which the former president of Catalonia, Artur Mas, ranked number 5, but it made clear from the beginning that Artur Mas was the candidate of JxS for the position of the president[ix] of the Catalonia Generalitat[x]. On the other side, CUP based its  campaign on the need to "speed up the process to independence, but rejecting Artur Mas as president."

The same day that the declaration of rupture with Spain was approved, the inauguration of Artur Mas as President of Catalonia took place. Of the 10 deputies of CUP –just the affirmative vote of two deputies was needed- all 10 voted against it. Two days later, a new vote was held for the appointment of Artur Mas, and the 10 members of CUP again voted against. Artur Mas, the first candidate to the presidency, was rejected twice in the Catalan chamber.

This rejection has cooled down the process towards sovereignty and opened a phase of difficult negotiations between JxS and CUP, generating internal frictions in the two pro-independence parties.

CUP faces serious internal discussions in the sector that prioritizes a leftist over a nationalist strategy, and is not willing to vote for Artur Mas; the most nationalist sector believes in independence as a priority and would be willing to do so.

Within JxS a movement of people who criticized the alliance with a far-left party emerged. The image of the latter is not helpful in gaining the EU’s recognition of an independent Catalonia.

In this sense, The New York Times[xi] believes that from the moment CUP placed greater importance on the movement for Catalan independence, it has lost strength and international support.

Let´s remember that international support is very important for Catalonia obtaining independence. This difficulty in getting international support due to CUP, is what has caused the internal tension within JxS, bringing about the resignation of one of its members Martin Teixidor[xii] as well as a statement by the “Conseller” [xiii]  of Economy Mas- Colell, who described as "unacceptable" the agreement with CUP[xiv].

There will be a third opportunity for Artur Mas to be appointed President, if he is able to reach an agreement before next January 9th. The Catalan public opinion is pushing for the agreement to be reached earlier, but this is very unlikely to occur before the next Spanish elections on December 20[xv].

20 December:  Catalonia a Key Issue in Spanish elections

The December 20th, political elections will take place in Spain, apart from national issues such as the economic crisis, unemployment and corruption, the Catalan issue occupies an important part of the electoral debate.

Catalan independence parties say that they expect a change of position by the Spanish government after the elections, but this is an unrealistic desire.

There are four parties with real options to enter the Government: Partido Popular (PP, conservative) Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol (PSOE, socialist center-left) Ciudadanos (C´s centre-right) and PODEMOS (left).

PP is the current ruling party, PSOE has stated that they will never talk about the independence of Catalonia, C's maintained a position opposing Catalan independence as much or even more than PP. Only PODEMOS had promised that they would authorize a Catalan legal referendum, to vote on whether to be independent, but their chances to enter the Government of Spain are really low[xvi].

In this situation, although Artur Mas has stated that all depends on if PP wins or doesn’t win the Spanish elections[xvii], his attitude is more a strategy to gain time rather than real hope, to such a degree that the population of Catalonia began to distrust the real will of Mas and his party to achieve independence.

Agreement or Catalan elections on March.

After the Spanish elections, Artur Mas and JxS will have just twenty days to convince CUP to support his inauguration as president.

Otherwise, Artur Mas will be forced to call for new elections in Catalonia next March.

 

POPULAR ARTICLES

Not Found

OPINION

Vladimir Golstein

Vladimir Golstein

The Danderous Acceptance of Donald Trump

James N. Green

James N. Green

Politics in Brazil: Fasten Your Seat Belts!

Barbara H. Peterson

Barbara H. Peterson

Health officials confirm spread of Zika virus through sexual contact in Texas, first in US

Danny Haiphong

Danny Haiphong

WHY IS OTTO(SUPER)MAN ERDOGAN LOSING HIS CHARISMA?

Miray Aslan

Miray Aslan

How relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a breaking point

Navid Nasr

Navid Nasr

How relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a breaking point

Writers

chief editor

Joshua Tartakovsky

Analysis should serve as a method to better understand our world, not to obscure it.

Materials: 42

Specialization: Israel and the Middle East, US politics

Materials: 7

Specialization: Balkans, NATO and EU policies, Strategic communications

Materials: 3

Specialization: Foreign politics, Immigration, Human rights.

Materials: 2

Specialization: Political Science, Social Anthropology

Materials: 3

Specialization: Eastern Europe

Materials: 14

Specialization: Industrial Safety, Corporations

Materials: 12

Specialization: Eastern Europe, Labor movement

Materials: 3

Specialization: American history, way of life, and principles

Danielle Ryan

Ireland

Materials: 10

Specialization: US foreign policy, US-Russia relations and media bias

Materials: 20

Specialization: War, Racism, Capitalist exploitation, Civil rights

Materials: 8

Specialization: Modern Japanese History, Modern Chinese History, Military History, History of Counterinsurgency, History of Disobedience, Dynamics of Atrocities in Wartime

Dovid Katz

Lithuania

Materials: 3

Specialization: Holocaust Revisionism and Geopolitics; East European Far Right & Human Rights; Yiddish Studies & Litvak Culture

Materials: 20

Specialization: History, Catalunya, Spain, Geopolitics, Nationalism in Europe, Islamization, Immigration

Materials: 5

Materials: 3

Specialization: migration, international relations

Materials: 1

Specialization: Syria, US Foreign policy and strategies, BRICS/SCO

Materials: 19

Specialization: Balkans, Yugoslavia

Materials: 10

Specialization: Jihadist Groups, Islamic Terrorism, Global Security

Materials: 4

Specialization: Geopolitics

Materials: 4

Specialization: Media and government relations

Materials: 2

Specialization: Latin America, Brazil

Jay Watts

Canada

Materials: 2

Specialization: History, Marxism-Leninism, Imperialism, Anti-imperialism.

Materials: 2

Specialization: International Relations, Sociology, Geostrategy

Materials: 1

Specialization: civil rights

Lionel Baland

Belgium

Materials: 22

Specialization: Euroscepticism, Patriotic parties of Europe

Maram Susli

Australia

Materials: 3

Specialization: Geopolitics

Materials: 2

Specialization: Civil rights, Racism, US politics

Materials: 1

Specialization: geopolitics, economics

Max J. Schindler

Palestine-Israel

Materials: 9

Specialization: Politics

Miray Aslan

Turkey

Materials: 12

Specialization: Media, Politics

Materials: 5

Specialization: Politics, International relations

Navid Nasr

Croatia

Materials: 13

Specialization: Global security, Politics

Materials: 9

Specialization: Development of European Union, Non-governmental organizations, Politics and economics in Baltic States

Materials: 9

Specialization: Greece, Crisis of the US hegemony; Israel / Occupied Palestine, Oppression of Black people in the US

Materials: 4

Specialization: geopolitics, Russia, USSR

Pedro Marin

Brazil

Materials: 17

Specialization: Latin America, Ukraine, North Korea

Materials: 13

Specialization: Sustainable development, International relations, Comparative European politics, European integration, Eastern European politics and EU-Russia relations

Materials: 8

Specialization: Politics

Materials: 16

Specialization: Counterterrorist Finance

Seyit Aldogan

Greece

Materials: 3

Specialization: ISIS, Middle East, Globalization, Migrant crisis

Materials: 1

Specialization: Head of "Srebrenica Historical Project"

Materials: 3

Specialization: Economy, Social politics

Stevan Gajic

Serbia

Materials: 1

Specialization: Full time researcher at the Institute for European Studies

Materials: 5

Specialization: Geopolitics, Geoeconomics

Materials: 2

Specialization: Civil rights

Tobias Nase

Germany

Materials: 8

Specialization: Syria, US Foreign policy, Ukraine

Valerijus Simulik

Lithuania

Materials: 2

Specialization: Politics and economics in Baltic States, education and science, non - governmental organizations, globalization and EU

Van Gelis

Greece

Materials: 17

Specialization: Middle East

Materials: 1

Specialization: Kosovo, Serbia, Belgrad bombing

Materials: 5

Specialization: international relations, Russia

toTop